Rounding out a year of explosive growth, electric-carmaker Tesla is set for the biggest S&P 500 debut in history on Monday, and it’s been a crazy ride. In 2020 alone, the Palo Alto, Calif.-based firm posted its first-ever annual profit, booked stock gains strong enough to make CEO Elon Musk the world’s second-richest man and even announced a move to Texas. It’s still unclear how the dust will settle around Tesla’s meteoric rise, but as the firm races into the S&P’s top ranks, here’s a look at its monumental journey.
That’s Tesla’s approximate market capitalization on Friday afternoon. In June, Tesla became the most valuable automaker in the world, surpassing Toyota, after a stock surge fueled in part by a leaked internal email in which Musk told employees to “go all out and bring” the firm’s electric semi truck to volume production (that’s set to start next year). Fast-forward to present, and Tesla’s now worth more than Toyota, Volkswagen, BMW, GM and Ford—combined.
That’s about how much passive indexers are spending on Tesla shares ahead of Friday’s close as they adjust their portfolios to match the S&P’s new makeup. The rebalancing is also set to be the largest in history, and Tesla’s slated to be the S&P’s seventh most valuable component on Monday, ahead of Berkshire Hathaway and right behind Facebook and Alphabet.
That’s how high Tesla shares have surged thus far this year, compared to just 13% for the S&P and 40% for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. It hasn’t been a straight shot up though. After many on Wall Street speculated Tesla would be added to the S&P at its last rebalancing in September, shares surged in anticipation, making Musk a centibillionaire briefly this summer. But when S&P decided to add Etsy to the index instead, shares notably plunged more than 20% within days. Tesla will be the S&P’s top stock in 2020 by far come Monday—ahead of Etsy’s 325% gain.
That’s how much 49-year-old Musk is now worth, according to Forbes. Musk’s fortune has boomed in tandem with Tesla shares thanks to the eccentric billionaire’s 21% stake in the firm. At the start of the year, Musk was worth $26.6 billion, and as of this Friday he’s the world’s second-richest person, ahead of LVMH kingpin Bernard Arnault and Bill Gates–and behind none other than Jeff Bezos.
That’s how much profit Tesla’s banked this year through its third quarter, the firm’s fifth-straight quarter of profitability–but that’s on a whopping $17.2 billion in sales. In an internal email this month, first reported and obtained by Electrek, Musk warned employees that profit margins were “very low” and that investors are giving the firm “a lot of credit” for future profits, before adding: “If at any point, they conclude that’s not going to happen, our stock will immediately get crushed like a soufflé under a sledgehammer!”
That’s Tesla’s forward-looking price-earnings multiple, meaning it’d take Tesla that many years to make as much money as it’s worth based on estimated profitability in 2022. According to Goldman Sachs, that’s nearly eight times the average price-earnings multiple of 22 in the S&P. The bank also says Tesla’s S&P inclusion will have only a “de minimis contribution to index earnings.”
That’s how many of its electric vehicles Tesla has delivered to customers through the firm’s record-breaking third quarter, including about 319,000 this year. The firm’s first model, dubbed Roadster, debuted in 2008.
That’s how high Wall Street’s most bullish Tesla analyst thinks shares could go, representing about 12% upside to current levels. “The shift toward battery electric vehicle adoption is accelerating and will occur faster than our prior view,” Goldman analyst Mark Delaney wrote in early December, when he upped his Tesla price target from $455. “The energy business should also benefit from the regulatory shift toward carbon reduction and clean energy, and solar market valuations have similarly accelerated,” he added.
That’s the lowest Tesla price target on Wall Street, courtesy of GLJ Research’s Gordon Johnson, who issued the guidance in late October. “Tesla cannot sell out its existing capacity, despite [more than a dozen] price cuts this year, seven of which have occured in China,” Johnson wrote at the time. “We think there’s elevated risk that fourth-quarter results mark the beginning of the end to Tesla’s growth narrative.” The firm’s average price target among 30 analysts issuing such guidance is roughly $396.
That’s the number of years it’s been since Musk, a PayPal cofounder, joined a one-year-old Tesla in 2004. At the time, he invested nearly $6.5 million in the firm’s Series A funding round and became its founding chairman. Tesla went public on the Nasdaq exchange in June 2010 at an offering price of $17 per share. At the close Friday, shares were priced at exactly $695.