The Market Is Slowing Down
S&P 500 turned decisively lower yesterday, and the bulls were clearly rejected with their upswing attempt. No matter how HYG erased some of its intraday decline before the closing bell, TLT is still falling hard.
As stated weeks ago, without stabilization on the long end of the curve, any (temporarily but still) sustainable S&P 500 rally is inconceivable. So, no Q4 rally just yet.
Get The Full Series in PDF
Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.
Q3 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
Arnott Capital – September Performance Update
Arnott Capital commentary for the month of September ended September 30, 2022. The fund returned negative 1.79% for the month of September 2022. Net exposure averaged 29% long, while gross averaged 107%. This brings our Calendar Year Return to positive 3.06% and since inception return to positive 23.00% p.a. net of fees. Q3 2022 hedge Read More
Find A Qualified Financial Advisor
Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn’t have to be hard. SmartAsset’s free tool matches you with up to 3 fiduciary financial advisors in your area in 5 minutes.
Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests.
If you’re ready to be matched with local advisors that can help you achieve your financial goals, get started now.
The yesterday telegraphed key economic data came in mixed, but is leaning bearish, bearish for the real economy.
Manufacturing looks slowing down, and while unemployment claims retreated on a week to week basis, I don‘t trust that – the job market would feel the heat of slowing economy and earnings (no, the reasonably OK TSLA earnings won‘t save the day, we‘re going below $200 EPS for S&P 500 if not $180s).
So, stocks are set up for another day in the red, but moving at least two dozen points below the hardy 3,680 level is required to declare the bears as in the clear. Odds are we get there today with the action I am seeing in bonds.
As stated yesterday:
(…) Treasuries show no sign of calming down – the parabolic move in yields doesn‘t look to be over, the 10-y yield is already 4.10% premarket, and that means significant risk-off headwinds today. My key 3,735 level had been decisively broken, and the bears are in the driver‘s seat.
Certainly, the NXLF earnings jubilation being sold hard and fast on second thoughts concerning revenue and guidance, is a welcome sight confronting the barrage of fresh uberbullish calls from elsewhere meeting reality.
So, the S&P 500 relief rally is duly reversing, and it wasn‘t a move to get excited about – my key 3,795-3,810 zone didn‘t come into jeopardy. On the flip side, real assets are suffering as it‘s all again about yields and the dollar. Much is happening beneath the surface – the Fed swap lines providing other central banks with USD liquidity, is seeing quite some interest on a weekly basis, and I‘m not talking Switzerland and Credit Suisse only here as UK shouldn‘t be forgotten.
Crude oil is better placed than gold so far, where nominal and real rates are biting (it‘s the same what‘s powering banking), but I still stand by the call of silver squeeze approaching, just give it 3-4 miliion oz max more to be removed, and the tide is to turn.
The intraday reprieve in the dollar (counterintuitive given the rise in yields), is helping real assets today, and the corona quarantine length hints from China are likewise constructive.
The real fireworks would come on Fed turning, or markets sensing the Fed is approaching the end of its rope, and won‘t have any other move left than to relent in the fight on inflation, and support t he economy or fix the growing cracks abroad that bear on the USA as well. Then, especially precious metals would decouple, but as I had been stating for months with respect to gold especially, the heat is on for now.
Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of the premium Monica’s Trading Signals covering all the markets you’re used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the premium Monica’s Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only.
Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my homesite, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves on top of my extra Twitter feed tips. Thanks for subscribing & all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Stock Trading Signals
Gold Trading Signals
Oil Trading Signals
Copper Trading Signals
Bitcoin Trading Signals
All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice.
Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind.
Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make.
Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.