After A 5.2% Rise In a Week, What To Expect From CBOE Global Stock?

CBOE Global stock (BATS: CBOE) has gained 5.2% over the last 5 trading days (1 week) after the company outperformed the revenue estimates in its recently released fourth-quarter results. It reported net revenues of $307 million – up 10% y-o-y as compared to the year-ago period. This could mainly be attributed to a 17% growth in the options segment due to increases in net transaction & clearing fees and market data revenues. The growth in transaction & clearing fees was driven by a 41% y-o-y increase in options average daily volume (“ADV”), partially offset by a 19% y-o-y drop in options revenue per contract (“RPC”). Further, CBOE has decided to maintain its quarterly cash dividend of $0.42 per share of common stock in the first quarter of 2021.

In comparison to CBOE’s 5.2% rise, the broader S&P 500 increased 0.7% over the last five trading days. Now, is CBOE Global stock set to increase further or should we expect some decline? We believe that there is a 52% chance of a rise in CBOE stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last five years. See our analysis on CBOE Global Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.

5D: CBOE 5.2%, vs. S&P500 0.7%; Outperformed market

(5% likelihood event)

  • CBOE stock rose 5.2% over a five day trading period ending 2/17/2021, compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.7%
  • A change of 5.2% or more over five trading days is a 5% likelihood event, which has occurred 60 times out of 1256 in the last five years

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10D: CBOE 2%, vs. S&P500 4.5%; Underperformed market

(52% likelihood event)

  • CBOE stock rose 2.0% over the last ten trading days (2 weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.5%
  • A change of 2% or more over ten trading days is a 52% likelihood event, which has occurred 656 times out of 1240 in the last five years

21D: CBOE 1.1%, vs. S&P500 3.9%; Underperformed market

(23% likelihood event)

  • CBOE stock rose 1.1% the last twenty-one trading days (1 month), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.9%
  • A change of 1.1% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 23% likelihood event, which has occurred 278 times out of 1198 in the last five years

While CBOE Global stock may have moved, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how how the stock valuation for Adobe vs. Corcept Therapeutics shows a disconnect with their relative operational growth. You can find many such discontinuous pairs here.

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