After Last Week’s Rally Is Apple Stock Poised To Rise Further?

The shares of Apple have gained about 9% over the past month (about 21 trading days), trading at about $156 per share. This compares to the S&P 500 which has gained about 7% over the same period. The stock was also up by about 6% over the last week (five trading days). The recent rally comes as Apple’s Q4 FY’22 results came in ahead of expectations, in contrast with fellow tech titans Amazon AMZN , Alphabet, and Meta, who all missed estimates, amid weaker demand and easing Covid-19 tailwinds. Over Q4, Apple’s revenues stood at $90.1 billion, up about 8% year-over-year, and EPS came in at $1.29, up about 3% versus last year. However, growth rates for Apple’s bread-and-butter iPhone businesses fell short of estimates as interest in entry level models was weak, although premium devices such as the iPhone Pro apparently saw a stronger uptake. Apple’s services business has also seen a meaningful slowdown, with year-over-year growth coming in at just 5%, compared to double-digit levels in previous quarters.

Now that Apple stock has seen gains of about 9% over the last month, will it continue its upward trajectory in the near term, or is a decline imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a roughly 64% chance of a rise in Apple stock over the next month. Out of 493 instances in the last ten years that Apple stock saw a twenty-one-day rise of 9% or more, 314 of them resulted in Apple stock rising over the subsequent month (21 trading days). This historical pattern reflects 314 out of 493, or about 64% chance of a rise in Apple stock over the coming month, implying a positive near-term outlook for the stock. See our analysis on Apple Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.

Calculation of ’Event Probability’ and ’Chance of Rise’ using the last ten years data

  • After moving 6% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 60% of the occasions.
  • After moving 13% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 57% of the occasions
  • After moving 9% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 64% of the occasions.

This pattern suggests that it is moderately likely that Apple stock will see gains in the near term.

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