An October Rebound For Apple
Photo by Alex Tai/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
On September 8th, in a posting entitled ‘A Weak September For Apple AAPL ’ I explained that Apple cycles had turned down. The conclusion was that “The $105 and $95 levels are reasonable downside targets.” The shares price hit an intraday low of $103.10 on September 21st. This was close enough to a standard 38.2% retracement of the March-September rally.
Apple has shifted from the weakest month in the year to a strong month. October has been the strongest month in any year for the shares as we see in the histogram. Apple has risen in 71.8% of all such months of since 1980. The average return has been +6.8%. The bars in the chart below represent the expected return, 4.9%, the product of these 2 numbers. I can add that the monthly dynamic cycle is also rising, adding to the likelihood of higher prices.
Chart 1- Apple Monthly Histogram
This is the strongest month of the year for Apple shares.
Cycles Research Investments LLC
The average low has been near October 3rd as we can see in the daily histogram for September below.
Chart 2- Apple Price Behavior in the Month of October
The average low in October has occurred early in the month.
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The stock is likely to reach $125 by mid month, followed by new highs in November.
Chart 3-Apple Daily Graph
This correction has ended; expect higher prices.
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