An October Rebound For Apple

On September 8th, in a posting entitled ‘A Weak September For Apple AAPL ’ I explained that Apple cycles had turned down. The conclusion was that “The $105 and $95 levels are reasonable downside targets.” The shares price hit an intraday low of $103.10 on September 21st. This was close enough to a standard 38.2% retracement of the March-September rally.

Apple has shifted from the weakest month in the year to a strong month. October has been the strongest month in any year for the shares as we see in the histogram. Apple has risen in 71.8% of all such months of since 1980. The average return has been +6.8%. The bars in the chart below represent the expected return, 4.9%, the product of these 2 numbers. I can add that the monthly dynamic cycle is also rising, adding to the likelihood of higher prices.

Chart 1- Apple Monthly Histogram

The average low has been near October 3rd as we can see in the daily histogram for September below.

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Chart 2- Apple Price Behavior in the Month of October

The stock is likely to reach $125 by mid month, followed by new highs in November.

Chart 3-Apple Daily Graph

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