An October Rebound For Apple
On September 8th, in a posting entitled ‘A Weak September For Apple AAPL ’ I explained that Apple cycles had turned down. The conclusion was that “The $105 and $95 levels are reasonable downside targets.” The shares price hit an intraday low of $103.10 on September 21st. This was close enough to a standard 38.2% retracement of the March-September rally.
Apple has shifted from the weakest month in the year to a strong month. October has been the strongest month in any year for the shares as we see in the histogram. Apple has risen in 71.8% of all such months of since 1980. The average return has been +6.8%. The bars in the chart below represent the expected return, 4.9%, the product of these 2 numbers. I can add that the monthly dynamic cycle is also rising, adding to the likelihood of higher prices.
Chart 1- Apple Monthly Histogram
The average low has been near October 3rd as we can see in the daily histogram for September below.
Chart 2- Apple Price Behavior in the Month of October
The stock is likely to reach $125 by mid month, followed by new highs in November.
Chart 3-Apple Daily Graph