Stocks To Trade In September

Here are the cycles-based trade recommendations for the DJIA stocks in this month.

For the month of September, the cycle/relative strength concept is applied. First, the Dow Jones 30 stocks are ranked from the best performer to the worst by calculating the percent of months in which the stock rose in that month. The top 10 were screened as follows. The top ten best traditional performers in September were then screened for relative strength by a unique measure that sorts by several relevant time periods. Those that pass both screens are buys for the month. The stocks that are both weak September performers and weak relative performers are short sales for the month.

In August, the five long recommendations rose by an average of 11.79%, ranging from 21.66% for Apple to 5.50% for Procter and Gamble. The three short sales rose by an average of 1.32% ranging from -5.10% for Exxon to +8.75% for Boeing. The DJIA rose by 7.57%.  

The seasonal screen for the month is presented below. The number of years of data is in the last column. The % Times Return column shows the percent of months in which the stock rose. The Return column shows the average percentage gain in the month. The Expected Return column is the product of columns two and three. We can see that Cisco has been trading for 30 years and has risen in 70.0% in all the months of September. The average return has been 0.66% and the expected return is 0.46%.

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Of the top 10, these stocks show strong relative strength are considered buys for the month:

Microsoft MSFT

Nik NKE e

Salesforc CRM e

Dow

Regarding the weakest 10, these stocks show declining relative strength and are suitable short sales:

Walgreen-Boots

Intel INTC

Coca Col KO a

Market cycles point lower in September, so the short sales are favored.

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