Twitter’s Stock Was Up 5% Last Week – Is Further Growth Possible?

Twitter’s stock has risen 5.1% over the last 5 trading days, as the market awaits full year 2020 results on 9th February, 2021. The stock recovered after falling in January’s second half, the fall was triggered by fear of reduced future subscribers due to some political groups leaving the site.

The above factors have been responsible for a 5.1% rise in Twitter’s stock in a week. In comparison, the broader S&P 500 fell by 3.2% over the last 5 trading days. Now, is Twitter’s stock poised to grow? We believe that there is a 54% chance of a rise in Twitter’s stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last 5 years. See our analysis on Twitter Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.

5D: TWTR 5.1%, vs. S&P500 -3.2%; Outperformed market

(22% likelihood event)

  • Twitter stock rose 5.1% over a 5-day trading period ending 1/29/2021, compared to broader market (S&P500) decline of 3.2%
  • A change of 5.1% or more over 5 trading days is a 22% likelihood event, which has occurred 275 times out of 1256 in the last 5 years

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10D: TWTR 10%, vs. S&P500 -2%; Outperformed market

(23% likelihood event)

  • Twitter stock rose 10% over the last 10 trading days (2 weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) decline of 2.0%
  • A change of 10% or more over 10 trading days is a 23% likelihood event, which has occurred 286 times out of 1240 in the last 5 years

21D: TWTR -7%, vs. S&P500 -0.2%; Underperformed market

(56% likelihood event)

  • Twitter stock declined 7.0% the last 21 trading days (1 month), compared to broader market (S&P500) decline of 0.2%
  • A change of -7% or more over 21 trading days is a 56% likelihood event, which has occurred 675 times out of 1198 in the last 5 years

While Twitter’s stock may continue to grow, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Amazon vs Etsy.

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