Up 18% In A Month, Will Allogene Therapeutics Stock See Higher Levels?

The stock price of Allogene Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ALLO), a biotechnology company focused on T-cell therapies for solid tumors, has seen an 18% rise over the last month, white it’s down 38% YTD. The stock price over the recent weeks has been buoyed by the U.S. FDA assigning fast track designation to its ALLO-316, which is currently being tested for the treatment of Renal Cell Carcinoma.

Since October of last year, ALLO stock was weighed down due to the U.S. FDA putting a hold on all of Allogene’s clinical trials, citing safety concerns. While the regulator removed the hold on trials in early January this year, ALLO stock has failed to stage a meaningful recovery so far. At the current level of $9, it is still 75% below its 52-week high of $36 it saw in April last year.

But now that ALLO stock has seen a rise of 18% in a month will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of a fall in ALLO stock over the next month. Out of 94 instances in the last three years that ALLO stock saw a twenty-one-day rise of 18% or more, only 38 resulted in ALLO stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 38 out of 94, or about a 40% chance of a rise in ALLO stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Allogene Therapeutics Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using the last three years’ data

  • After moving -0.8% or more over five days- the stock rose on 46% of the occasions in the next five days.
  • After moving -0.4% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 46% of the occasions
  • After moving -17.5% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 40% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.

This pattern suggests a higher chance of a fall in ALLO stock over the next five days, next ten days, and next month.


Allogene Therapeutics Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: ANIK highest at 45.4%; RIGL lowest at -10.4%
  • Ten-Day Return: ANIK highest at 40.4%; RIGL lowest at -13.2%
  • Twenty-One Days Return: ANIK highest at 21.4%; RIGL lowest at -7.7%

While ALLO stock may see lower levels, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities, which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Allscripts Healthcare Solutions vs. NortonLifeLock.

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