What’s Next For Alkermes Stock After A 16% Rise Last Month?

The stock price of Alkermes, a biopharmaceutical company focused on neuroscience and oncology, has seen a rise of around 16% over the last twenty-one trading days, and it is up a solid 91% over the last twelve-month period. The rally in ALKS stock over the recent months has been propelled by the U.S. FDA approval of Lybalvi – used for the treatment of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, and more recently, the U.S. FDA granting a fast track designation to Nemvaleukin, for the treatment of mucosal melanoma. Nemvaleukin is an important drug for Alkermes and it has partnered with Merck MRK for a late stage study to evaluate Nemvaleukin in combination with Keytruda for treating patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer. Furthermore, the recent upbeat quarterly performance and upward revision in full-year outlook has been received well by the investors, sending ALKS stock to its 52-week high levels of around $32 currently.

But now that ALKS stock has seen a large move in the recent past, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of more gains in ALKS stock over the next month. Out of 228 instances in the last ten years that ALKS stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 16% or more, 132 of them resulted in ALKS stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 132 out of 228, or about a 58% chance of a rise in ALKS stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Alkermes Stock Chances of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data

  • After moving 2.9% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 51% of the occasions.
  • After moving 7.5% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 44% of the occasions
  • After moving 16% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 58% of the occasions.

Predict average return on Alkermes Stock Return: AI Predicts ALKS Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise

Alkermes Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: FLXN highest at 46%; PCRX lowest at -3%
  • Ten-Day Return: FLXN highest at 64%; PCRX lowest at -1.7%
  • Twenty-One Days Return: FLXN highest at 25%; ENDP lowest at -23%

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While ALKS stock may continue to see higher levels, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for United Therapeutics vs Quest Diagnostics.

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