Bitcoin Begins Attempt To Break Above This Down-Trend Line


Bitcoin’s wall of worry is quite different than the stock market’s wall of worry. The equity world is concerned with the effects on earnings of interest rates, the price of oil and the latest thinking of the current White House occupant.

With the crypto-currencies, all of that is interesting and ultimately relevant, but the main concerns lie elsewhere: especially in the emerging regulatory framework that’s developing.

For example, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce wants “regulatory clarity” in the bitcoin world, according to Forbes contributor Aaron Stanley right here.

The regulation of tokenized securities is an issue, as Forbes contributor Andrea Tinianow explains here.

In Malta, government authorities are putting together the first-in-the-world official regulations for crypto, block chain and DLT, as noted by Forbes contributor Rachel Wolfson right here.

Buyers seem to approve of the increasing regulatory focus — at least they did last week. Bitcoin’s first real attempt to climb back up that wall of worry is taking place now, as you can see if you closely examine this monthly price chart:

NYSE Bitcoin Index monthly

That price bar for July, representing the highs and lows, closed at the top end of the bar and is pushing slightly up above the downtrend line. That’s the red dotted line that connects the December, 2017 peak with the much lower May, 2018 peak. Bitcoin bulls would like to see the price move above that line and stay there by month’s end as evidence that the trend downward had ended.

Here’s the weekly chart where the movement is a bit clearer:

NYSE Bitcoin Index weekly

Here you can see that price has moved above the downward trend line without question. The MACD technical indicator below the actual price chart — representing a comparison of moving average to price — may be about to give a bullish signal. I’ve circled in red where the indicator’s black line may cross above the red line. If that takes place, it’s likely that an uptrend is underway, according to chart reading textbooks.

This chart is based on the daily price and gives an even closer view:

NYSE Bitcoin Index daily

Again, you can see clearly how the down trend line has been taken out by the price breaking upward against it and above it. The MACD technical indicator is confirming the action by showing an upward slant that diverges from the 3 recent price lows, each one a bit lower than the previous one. The next step, from a bull’s perspective, would be to see the price rise above the down trending Ichimoku cloud just above it.

And this one is the 5-minute price from early Sunday night:

Bitcoin 5-minute chart, 7/22/18

It looks as if the wall of worry is slowly being ascended for bitcoin — at least for now. Nothing is guaranteed, of course, and the constantly changing regulatory environment is always subject to the actions of government officials and politicians.

I do not hold positions in these investments. No recommendations are made by me one way or the other.  If you’re an investor, you’d want to look much deeper into each of these situations. You can lose money trading or investing in bitcoin. Always do your own independent research, due diligence and seek professional advice from a licensed investment advisor.

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